The 2024 US presidential election not only marks a reshuffling of domestic political forces in the United States, but also places a crucial move on the global political and economic chessboard, triggering a chain reaction that affects every corner of the world. First and foremost, every breath of the United States, this superpower, resonates with the pulse of the world. The 2024 election is not merely a contest between the Democratic and Republican parties, but also a choice made by the American people regarding the future direction. The formation of a new government foreshadows adjustments in foreign policy; whether it's a return to multilateralism or a insistence on unilateral action, it will reshape the role and influence of the United States in the international community.
International Stage: Complex and Diverse Responses
Attitudes of World Leaders
- Israel: Enthusiastic Cheers from Allies
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu actively interacted with and publicly congratulated Trump after his victory, calling it a major victory. He emphasized that Trump's return to the White House is a new starting point for the United States, of great significance to the US-Israel alliance, symbolizing a stronger commitment. The fact that some Israeli soldiers violated regulations by celebrating Trump's victory reflects Trump's popularity among some Israelis. Amid the complex situation in the Middle East, Israel looks forward to working closely with the US under Trump's leadership to address challenges.
- Hungary: Expectations for a Peace Opportunity
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán congratulated Trump, hailing his victory as "urgently needed by the world" and a "great return in American political history." The Hungarian Foreign Minister pointed out that Trump's victory increased the possibility of a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine conflict. Orbán's government sees Trump as a positive factor in the Ukraine issue and believes the EU may adjust its stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, given the immense pressure Europe faces from the burden of war.
- UK: Seeking Cooperation Across Differences
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Trump on his "historic election victory" on social media, expressing their hope for continued cooperation. The British Health Secretary stated that the Labour government is willing to set aside its criticism of Trump and establish a good relationship with him. Despite previous unpleasantness, including Trump's accusations against the British Labour Party, the UK still hopes to develop Anglo-American relations.
- France: Focusing on Cooperation and Stability
French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with Trump after his victory, with both expressing their willingness to work for peace and stability amidst the international crisis. Macron congratulated Trump on social media, hoping to develop a transatlantic agenda, emphasizing the role of Europe, and preparing to cooperate with Trump on Ukraine and the Middle East issues after taking office at the end of January. Despite the ups and downs in their relationship, France still looks forward to working with the United States on major issues.
- Italy: Strengthening Strategic Ties
Italian Prime Minister Meloni emphasized the "sister" relationship between Italy and the United States, believing that Trump's victory would further strengthen the "strategic ties" between the two countries.
- EU: Caution and Expectations Coexist
Following Trump's victory, the EU held an emergency meeting. While its leaders were disappointed with the result, their statements, ranging from emphasizing allies to deepening cooperation, conveyed a willingness to cooperate constructively with the US (provided Trump does not cross certain lines). The EU plans to negotiate with Trump's team but is concerned about his "America First" policy, such as imposing tariffs on the EU, halting aid to Ukraine, and withdrawing from NATO. In response, the EU established a "rapid reaction force" to deal with potential tariff threats.
- NATO: Expectations for Leadership
NATO Secretary General Rutte believes that Trump's leadership is crucial to NATO's strength and looks forward to renewed cooperation, hoping that NATO will remain stable and strong under his leadership.
- Reactions from Other Countries
The presidents of Poland, the Czech Republic, Japan, Serbia, and Australia, among others, congratulated Trump. Japan hopes to solidify its alliance, while the German Social Democratic Party and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) hold differing views. The Ukrainian president praised Trump, while the former Russian president pointed out that Trump's victory could bring problems to Ukraine, particularly regarding uncertainty surrounding US financial support.
International Reactions at Other Levels
- Concerns from European Diplomats and Officials
European diplomats were shocked by the scale of Trump's victory in swing states, fearing he would pursue a more aggressive "America First" policy. An EU official stated this would negatively impact trade and the situation in Ukraine.
- Volatility in International Financial and Commodity Markets
The news of Trump's victory impacted international financial and commodity markets. Gold prices fell, and the dollar index rose, reflecting changes in market expectations regarding US economic policy and the international situation. Investors held differing views on US economic and trade policies, exhibiting both concerns and expectations.
Domestic in the US: A Public Opinion Landscape of Divergence and Expectations
Trump Supporters: Enthusiasm and High Expectations
- Victory Celebration
Trump supporters were ecstatic about his victory, firmly believing he could lead the US to prosperity. Trump's hardline stance on the economy (tax cuts, infrastructure investment), immigration (controlling illegal immigration), and foreign policy met their expectations, leading to massive celebrations by supporters after his victory.
- Aspirations for the Future
Supporters expect Trump to fulfill his campaign promises in a second term, addressing economic development, employment, and social welfare issues. They believe he has the ability to revitalize the American economy, restore international standing, and safeguard American interests.
Democrats and Harris Supporters: Disappointment and Doubt
- A Heavy Blow
Harris supporters and Democrats were deeply disappointed by Trump's victory. The atmosphere at Harris's campaign headquarters was somber, with supporters weeping.
- Internal Reflection and Questioning of the Results
Divides and reflection emerged within the Democratic Party. Some believed in the need to reform party structures, adjust campaign strategies and policy proposals, while questioning the fairness of the election results, despite a lack of concrete evidence.
Political Observers and Scholars: Focus on Political Trends
- A Major Shift in the Political Landscape
Trump's victory foreshadows a major shift in the American political landscape, profoundly impacting the political ecology. Observers and scholars are closely watching his government formation, policy implementation, and interactions with Congress, with some worrying that his policies will exacerbate social divisions and international tensions.
- Policy Impact Analysis
Experts analyze Trump's future policies, suggesting that economic protectionism and trade barriers may impact the US and European economies, while his "America First" foreign policy may affect US relations with allies.
Financial Markets: Positive Signals
Following Trump's victory, US stocks surged, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices reaching new highs, indicating that investors have positive expectations for Trump's economic policies and confidence in the US economic outlook.